PlanetQuest Update

Laurence Doyle posted a new update early this morning on PlanetQuest, saying:

I applied for the NASA Kepler Science Team and included PlanetQuest as the educational component of the proposal. I proposed to find planets in the multiple star systems that Kepler observes and won the proposal.

So, there will be NASA Kepler spacecraft data in the PlanetQuest Collaboratory (we'll divvy it up evenly) to look for planets in. What is amazing about these data is that the precision will be 100 times anything achieved on Earth -- that is, the detection of Earth-sized planets around Sunlike stars will be possible.

So this seems like good news for both Dr. Doyle's PlanetQuest efforts and the Kepler Mission, both of which are projects that I've been interested in for a very long time.

Now, if PlanetQuest can just get their software out the door and into my grubby little hands....

Launch Postponed

12/17/2007 - 9:28 AM - UPDATE: In order to give their staff some time off over the holidays, NASA has pushed the shuttle's launch date back again, this time to January 10. If they dalay much longer, the launch of Atlantis could impact the timeline for 2008's remaining shuttle launches. NASA has a pretty limited lifespan for these shuttles, which are supposed to be retired by 2010, so any delay in launching missions this year could have serious repercussions.

12/10/2007 - 8:11 AM - UPDATE: Still unable to find and correct the fuel sensor glitch, NASA has decided to postpone the launch until January 2, 2008. Doing so will hopefully give their people time to figure out why the sensors are failing (or replace them with a different set that will hopefully work better).

12/08/2007 10:26 AM - UPDATE: NASA has added a further delay, but odds are looking pretty good for a launch tomorrow. These sensors are a four-piece backup system, and when they fueled the shuttle on Thursday only two of the four registered. NASA's rules call for at least three to be functioning in order to launch, but they may relax that rule. They are also planning to shorten their launch window from the normal five minutes to just one minute to conserve a little extra fuel. The reason is that the sensors in question are designed to shut off the engines after fuel gets pretty low, and this way if they fail to shut off there will be a little bit more fuel left at the end of the burn.

12/07/2007 8:09 AM - UPDATE: It's not going to be today, either. NASA is going to spend a little time trying to figure out how to fix the wiring to the sensors. If they can't come up with a solution quickly, they may just launch tomorrow, anyway. These sensors are redundant systems, so not having them won't impact the launch unless the primary systems fail.

So the weather was perfect, but the shuttle wasn't. Two of four low-level fuel sensors on the Atlantis' external fuel tank malfunctioned, prompting a delay of at least 24 hours. Hopefully they'll get things fixed and launch the shuttle tomorrow.

Shuttle Launch Tomorrow

So you probably know by now, but Atlantis is due to launch tomorrow at 4:31 pm EST (3:31 pm here in the Midwest) carrying the European Columbus laboratory to the International Space Station. The weather looks good, so barring any unforseen complications, the next step in space-borne science should be getting underway pretty soon.

Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grade Chimp?

Researchers from Kyoto University's Primate Research Institute created a working memory task that involved displaying a series of numbers on the screen for a fraction of a second then covering them with boxes. The subjects (chimps and university students) were tasked to touch the white squares in the correct numerical order.

What they discovered was that the nine university students performed progressively worse as the time the numbers were visible decreased from 0.6 seconds to 0.21 seconds, as they had expected. The explanation is that humans cannot scan the screen fast enough to see and mentally record all of the numbers.

One of the two chimps in the study, Ai, demonstrated the same results. The other chimp, seven-year-old Ayumu, however, demonstrated no decreased ability as the time interval shrank. In other words, Ayumu actually performed better on this task than any of the students. The students' performance was on par with Ai, the older chimp.

Is it possible that the average, young university student has roughly the same cognitive abilities as a middle-aged chimp, and that younger chimps have better cognitive abilities than younger people? Sure, anything is possible. But it's not likely. Rather, the researchers believe that chimps in general (or at least Ayumu specifically) have much stronger eidetic memory (more commonly referred to as photographic memory) than the average human.

It should also be pointed out that the sample size of this study was limited to nine students and two chimpanzees. That's a pretty small sample for any real scientific study. However, this could open the door to new areas of cognitive research.

Recent Inactivity

Okay, I know I haven't been blogging much lately. I've been extremely busy with work and a new business venture, but I am going to make an attempt to pick up the activity on this blog. I've been trying to write more feature-type entries and do less of just re-posting other people's news. Hopefully, I can put pressure on myself to write more by doing things like signing up for a Technorati Profile.

Failed Predictions

"Difficult to see... always in motion is the future." - Yoda, Empire Strikes Back

The future is hard to predict accurately. Some of the smartest people who've ever lived have tried their hands at it and failed miserably. To illustrate that, a poster on The List Universe recently posted a list of the Top 30 Failed Technology Predictions.

It's pretty interesting to see some of the predictions that have been proven wrong over the years.

Occam's Razor

entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem

For those of you who don't read Latin, that translates as "entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity," and it's one of the most important concepts of logical thinking - Occam's Razor.

Occam's Razor (also known as Ockham's Razor, since it was named after William of Ockham, the 14th century Franciscan monk who first postulated it) is more commonly phrased as, "all other things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the right one." This is usually applied when multiple theories are used to describe a situation; the theory that makes the fewest assumptions and the fewest entities tends to be the most accurate theory.

One of the main reasons we prefer simpler theories (according to philosopher Sir Karl Popper) is because simpler theories apply more broadly than complex theories, and thus they are more easily tested (and refuted). Since valid scientific theories can never be proven, only disproven, a theory that can be more easily tested and refuted is preferable to one that cannot be tested and refuted (in fact, theories that cannot be disproven are not valid scientific theories).

Occam's Razor is not a scientific theory. Rather, it is a heuristic method used for choosing among competing theories. While there is some risk of eliminating valid theories, probability theory and statictics argue in favor of Occam's Razor on the basis that all assumptions introduce possibilities for error. Thus, theories with more assumptions are more likely to be incorrect. Additionally, simpler theories will be easier to test and refute, bringing us back to the more complex theories that we originally bypassed.

If you have trouble remembering Latin (like I do), you can just keep in mind the KISS principle: Keep It Simple, Stupid.